MAPS & FACTS™ UNLIMITED, INC. specializes in GIS (Geographic Information System) produced, architectural, driven, based, demographic, educational, and real estate maps to home buyers, brokers, developers, attorneys and lenders.
Map of the Month – November 2019
Post-Baby Boom Housing Market
This year, the youngest Baby Boomer turned 55. Numerous articles have been published, locally and nationally, implying that Baby Boomer owned houses may “flood” the market due to the smaller sizes of Gen X and Gen Y cohorts; and, implicitly threaten prices.
While this may be true in some parts of the country, primarily due to population shifts, we were curious to see how the existing Metro Phoenix Baby Boomer markets might transition to Gen X and Gen Y cohorts.
For this month’s map we compiled the median sales prices for the original Sun City, Sun City West, and Sun City Grand over the past 3 decades as depicted on the following map.
Our results are charted below:
Sun City Is the largest of the 3 communities with 27,731 housing units (Including apartments and condos). In the 2010 decade to date, 30% of the Inventory, or about 3.5% per year, sold about 8% higher than in the previous 2000’ s decade.
The numbers for Sun City West are similar with about 50% of the inventory turning over (5% annually) and 8% appreciation.
Sun City Grand had 65% turnover (6.5% annually) and 15% appreciation.
These turnover and appreciation rates mimic the long-term Metro Phoenix market i.e. 5% annual turnover and 5% annual appreciation. Even the original Sun City shows positive absorption and appreciation.
These data suggest that Metro Phoenix’s Baby Boomer housing market has performed as well as the larger market. In the years ahead, the Sun City’s should continue to draw from the US’s Gen X and Gen Y population cohorts.
In our opinion, the primary challenge facing Baby Boomer retirement communities Is obsolescence due to housing age and the quality of common area amenities including golf courses and recreation centers.