This month's map shows net migration from 2010 to 2012.As shown,
Arizona ranks 3rd among all Western States (red outline).
Of interest,
WashingtonD.C. ranked 1st in the nation.
North Dakota was nationally 2nd due to the petroleum & natural gas fracking boom.Florida and
Texas were next, but look at their base population counts.
Compared with our peers, we are doing well!California didn’t even exceed 0.50%.Michigan and
Illinois were both negative.
There are two Spring Training Leagues in the
US: The Grapefruit League in
Southern Florida and the Cactus League in Metro Phoenix.The Grapefruit League trains in 13 cities throughout
Southern Florida.The 15 Cactus League teams play in the Metro Phoenix Area (See this month's Map of the Month)
This concentration of spring training sites attracts millions of tourist dollars but also provides for year round use by junior leagues, tournaments, baseball camps, and regional competitions.The stadiums also attract and support hotels, restaurants, and retail in their respective sub-markets.
Since the Diamondbacks take pride in having the lowest ticket prices in Major League Baseball, we've added the ticket price ranges for each Spring Training Stadium.
In our opinion, the recent excitement about housing prices increasing 20%, 30%, and even 50%, while probably accurate for what they portray, are misleading because they don't portray the "average" house.
Map & Facts has tracked what we call the "average house", i.e. of the 250,000 houses built between 1990 and 1999, selling between $100,000 and $500,000. The chart below indicates that the median price for our "average" house increased by 11.4% to about $200,000; roughly the same as in 2004:
Next, we plotted these sales on our color-coded school map as depicted below:
Finally, we arrayed the 2012 median sales price by map color; red being the highest, blue being the lowest. The difference in median sales prices by school attendance boundary is obvious:
There has been much recent press about population and job growth leading our economic recovery; however, it’s hard to put into perspective without a map and closer examination!
This month’s map depicts where the percentage growth was and probably will be for the next decade.As shown, growth is concentrated in the far west I-10 corridor, and, the far Southeast Valley.
Rather than pinpoint one quarter or even one year, we combined 2010 which was a true census (taken in 2009) with 2012 which was and always will be an estimate.
However, as the below chart summarizes, the greatest number of “new” residents by far was in the City of Phoenix with 43,118 added.Mesa and Gilbert were second and third numerically but with only 13,043 and 12,687 new residents respectively.And beware, all population estimates include births over deaths which is less volatile than net in-migration.
Using Costar’s submarket data, we have compared vacancy rates from the first quarter 2010 low point with first quarter 2013. The first quarter 2010 vacancy rate was 23.32%: first quarter 2013 was 20%. While quarter to quarter is not controlling, valley-wide, the overall Class “A” office vacancy rate has declined only slightly; but each submarket is dramatically different.
Looking at the larger submarkets only, Tempe and Chandler showed the greatest improvement going from 42.10% to 12.20%, and, 36.3% to 3.90% respectively. Downtown went from 22.40% to 12.80%. The 44th Street corridor went from 25% to 10.20%.
We should expect near term rent increases in these sub-markets, but we still need to have significant rent and occupancy increases to justify new construction (cost equals value).
There has been much press lately about the shrinking supply of houses for sale and rising house prices.While no doubt there are fewer houses for sale today, as shown, we still have many choices, in many price ranges, in virtually all parts of The Valley.
This month’s map depicts single family listings over $100,000 and on the market for 90 days or less as of July 22nd (about 7,000)
At some point the market will equalize and the number of new listings will approximate the number of sales, expirations, off markets, and old listings.
We have long argued that grade school test performance is a proxy for other real estate metrics.Another may be apartment values. The apartment market is still on fire, but geographic differences may be a clue to broader submarket demographics.
This month’s map depicts 67 “one-off” apartment sales, per CoStar, since January. Unit prices ranged from $15,000 to $184,000 per unit; a wide range to say the least. Obviously; amenities, location, and condition help explain these wide differences: and, with the exception of the Pavilion on Central, the 11 other projects over $125,000 per unit are located on the urban “fringe”.
Based on this sample, high end apartments may be another proxy for real estate metrics.
As economist Lee McPheters with ASU has long told us, Arizona has always been among the Top 3 growth states for the past 40+ years.
This month’s map shows that Arizona is projected to regain the top job growth spot over the next 5 years.Also shown, are the next nine (9) states dominated by the Mountain West.
While most leading economic indicators are still well below past peaks, Arizona is coming back: cautiously strong!
A frequent question is: “Where can I buy/rent a house that’s in both a top elementary school (by attendance boundary) AND in a top high school?”
This month’s map identifies all elementary and high schools in which 86% or more of the students taking last year’s AIMS test achieved or exceeded the standard as established by the State. I.e.: all the elementary schools identified by a yellow border are also located in a top high school district as outlined in red.
AIMS tests are just one measure of school performance. Obviously, there were other elementary and high schools that also scored 86% or higher; just not with overlapping geography.And, there are many other criteria to evaluate school performance as well.
Newly released census data tracking Senior and Millennial migration from 2009 through 2012 offers two dramatic, and perhaps long term, trends (link). This month’s map compares the top 5 metro areas for Senior vs. Millennial net migration. Green is a top 5 Millennial metro area; red is top 5 Senior metro area.
As shown, Metro Phoenix had the highest net number of new residents over 55. (It should be noted that between 2000 and 2010 the 65 plus age cohorts (baby boomers) increased by 15.1 % vs. 9.7% for the total US population.)
In contrast, Metro Phoenix didn’t even rank in the top 20 in attracting Millennials.
Denver ranked high (no pun intended) in both categories.
Metro Phoenix has to become more Millennial friendly if we are to attract and retain younger households at the time in their lives when they can and do make lifelong lifestyle choices.
According to most housing experts, the number of active single family listings (ARMLS) has been increasing (25,000 vs. 15,000 to 20,000),and demand has been decreasing (higher prices, affordability, and interest rates), suggesting thatsingle family supply and demandare near equilibrium.
For the real estate practitioner, it is difficult to analyze county wide data at the neighborhood level. Where are the 25,000 listings? What are their price levels?
GIS allows us to drill down to the neighborhood level. While the number of listings per grid is a starting point, one must also consider density and housing type. A high number of listings in one grid may be a function of density and build out rather than supply. I.e. Sun City.
The 5 grids with the highest median asking prices are:
N36$1,772,500 (150 Listings)
F38$1,550,000 (193 Listings
J38$1,399,000 (143 Listings)
H38$1,299,000 (131 Listings)
K38$1,297,000 (160 Listings)
The grids with the lowest median asking prices are:
P33$89,900 (103 Listings)
P32$99,900 (191 Listings)
Q34$105,000 (56 Listings)
P31$110,000 (212 Listings)
N32$110,000 (127 Listings)
It will be interesting to see how this plays out in 2014!
Attached to the map is a spreadsheet detailing listing counts and median list prices for all the grids shown.
